In the 1950s, architect Frank Lloyd Wright predicted the shape of cities would be decided by the winner of a race between car and elevator. “Anyone who bets on the elevator is crazy,” he said.

    China may prove him wrong. About 350 million Chinese will move to China’s cities in the next 15 years, according to the consultant McKinsey && Co., and government measures to limit sprawl and protect farmland mean that developers have to build up, rather than out. McKinsey estimates as many as 50,000 skyscrapers will be built in China during that time, the equivalent of 10 Manhattans.

    The building boom has manufacturers racing to grab a piece of an $11.7 billion-a-year Chinese elevator market that the researcher Freedonia Group says will double within eight years.

    Otis Elevator Co. leads, with a 23 percent share, but Hitachi Ltd. and Hyundai Elevator Co. are looking to make names for themselves by breaking elevator speed records.

    Hitachi finished building a $66 million, 50-story testing tower in April. The company will use it to develop elevators that could take the speed title from Toshiba Corp. Two days after the tower opened, Hyundai vowed it would break the record by midyear.

    Otis is the world’s oldest and biggest elevator maker. Its share of the world market slipped to 20 percent in 2008, from 26 percent four years earlier. Otis is scrambling to stay ahead. The company will soon start construction on a fifth Chinese factory, to capitalize on a government push to help less-developed areas catch up.

    The government’s “go-west policy” is one reason about half of the 450,000 elevators installed this year worldwide will be in Chinese buildings, said Rick Pulling, Otis’s head of high-rise operations.

    Chinese manufacturers are also expanding. Shenyang Brilliant Elevator Co. is moving in July to a 222-acre elevator factory in Shenyang that it says will be the world’s largest. The plant will crank out 50,000 elevators a year.

    Masayuki Mimura, a planning manager at Hitachi’s elevator unit, said China wants the highest buildings and the fastest lifts as a mark of prestige.

    “When they do something, they want to be number one,” he said. “That means they’re putting up taller and taller buildings. We have to be able to meet their needs.”

    Source: Business Week

 外国电梯争抢中国市场

       上世纪五十年代，弗兰克·劳埃德·赖特预言现代城市的格局将取决于汽车和电梯之间的比赛结果，“谁要是赌电梯会赢，那准是疯了。”

       中国也许会证明，他错了。据麦肯锡公司称，今后15年间，约3.5亿中国人将进军城市，政府约束无计划扩展和保护农田的措施意味着开发商不得不把楼房盖得更高而不是占地更大。麦肯锡公司估计，今后15年间中国将出现5万幢摩天楼，相当于10个曼哈顿。

       这一前景促使生产商争夺年销售额高达117亿美元的中国电梯市场，从事研究工作的弗里多尼亚集团预言，这个市场将在8年内增长一倍以上。

       虽然奥的斯公司以23%的市场份额领先，但日立和现代公司希望通过打破运行速度最高纪录来脱颖而出。

       日立公司在今年4月建成一座耗资6600万美元的50层试验塔，准备用它来研制新电梯，打破目前由东芝电梯保持的运行速度最高纪录。该试验塔竣工的两天之后，现代电梯公司表示要在年中之前争取桂冠。

       世界上最大和最早的电梯生产商是奥的斯， 2008年，它在世界市场上的份额从四年前的26%下降到20%。为了在中国抢占市场份额，奥的斯很快将着手修建第五个中国工厂，以便受惠于政府帮助欠发达地区发展的计划。

       奥的斯公司高层建筑业务负责人里克·普林指出，今年全世界装配完成的45万部电梯约有一半将进入中国的高楼大厦，原因之一就在于中国政府的西部大开发政策。

       中国制造商也不甘落后。沈阳博林特电梯有限公司将在今年7月迁入沈阳一个占地222英亩(约合1332亩)、据称乃世界第一大的电梯工厂。新的工厂将年产约5万部电梯。

       日立电梯公司计划经理三村正行认为，中国人想要最高的大楼和最快的电梯，认为这样凸显尊贵。他说：“他们做一件事时，总想做到第一。于是他们盖的楼越来越高，我们得满足他们的需要。