By Ji Yongyong

    Clinton Foundation analyst

    CTW New York correspondence

    The year 2009 was unusual for the world, and especially for China. While the rest of the world suffered the most severe economic recession since the Great Depression, China enjoyed rapid economic growth, just as it has every year in the past 30 years. With the worst part of recession likely left behind, analysts have started to wonder if China can sustain its growth rate in 2010 in the face of still-sluggish economic growth prospects in other countries and the gradual cessation of government stimulus money.

    In a high-profile economic forum hosted by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at the New York Stock Exchange on January 7, a group of leading Chinese economists gave their answer -- yes, 2010 will be another boom year for China.

    Justin Yifu Lin, the World Bank’s Chief economist and senior vice president, emphasized that 2010 will be crucial to both China and the U.S. China will face the challenge of how to sustain its growth rate while the U.S. struggles to create enough jobs to restart economic growth. On the issue of trade imbalance between China and the U.S., Mr. Lin pointed out that most of the products imported from China are labor intensive and no longer produced in the U.S. American trade barriers to Chinese products would create financial burdens for the American consumer. If Americans had to import these products from other countries with higher production costs, the U.S. trade deficit could actually worsen.

    Other economists voiced similar views on trade imbalance. While most supported an appreciation of the yuan, they predicted any rise would be gradual.

    Audience members, including some leading U.S. economists, threw hard questions at the Chinese economists. All agreed that 2010 will be a crucial year for both countries and that both sides must exercise patience when dealing with issues such as the U.S.-China trade imbalance.

    2010年，中国利好

    2009年对世界来说很不寻常，特别对中国来说。当世界上其他国家陷入“大萧条”后最严重的经济衰退的泥沼当中，中国经济还如同30年以来一样快速增长。随着经济衰退最坏的阶段很可能已经过去，人们想知道2010年的中国经济是否还能保持强劲的发展势头，特别是当其他国家的经济增长势头仍然疲软，以及政府刺激经济资金逐渐减少的情况下。

    1月7日，北京大学中国经济研究院与美中关系全国委员会共同在纽约证交所举办了一场高层次的经济论坛。与会的中国知名经济学家不约而同给出了同样的答案——是的，2010年对中国经济来说又将是一个好年头。

    林毅夫，世界银行首席经济学家及资深副总裁，强调2010年对于中美两国来说都是及其重要的。中国将面临如何保持经济快速增长的挑战；美国将面临如何创造就业机会使得经济重新增长的问题。在谈到中美两国之间贸易不平衡的现象时，林毅夫指出，中国向美国出口的产品是劳动密集型，美国早已不生产这些产品。因此如果美国限制从中国进口，将意味着美国民众不得不支付更昂贵的生活开支。美国不得不从其他国家进口这些产品，而这些国家的生产成本要比中国高很多，这样实际上会造成贸易不平衡的恶化。

    其他经济学家也在贸易不平衡这个问题上表达了相似的观点。大多数人认为，人民币的确需要增值，但这得有一个渐进的时间过程。

    一部分听众，包括一些知名的美国经济学家，提出了许多挑剔的问题。虽然如此，每个人都同意2010年对中美两国来说都将是重要一年。双方在处理许多敏感问题的时候，特别是贸易不平衡时，需要更多的耐心。

    作者为本刊驻纽约首席记者