Bird flu over Spring Festival
Translated by Phil

春节逐渐临近, 短短的一个月内, 近20亿人次的流动大潮向外扩散. 与此同时, 禽流感不断爆发新的病例, 病毒的人际传播途径, 依然是重大的隐患. 现有研究已经证明, H5N1禽流感毒株会在空气中传播. 因而, 人际传播的危险也在进一步扩大.

Spring Festival is nearly upon us, and large numbers of city dwellers are flowing out of the cities. This old Chinese tradition will cause a tidal wave of nearly 2 billion journeys in just one month, as people scatter out of the big cities to every corner of the country and then return a few days later. At the same time, new outbreaks of bird flu are exploding all over the countryside, and the possibility of transmission between people remains a constant threat.


Scientists are studying the virus, but much is unclear

The worry behind the movement of people this year is that we may already be in the first stages of a bird flu epidemic. We dread the notice from the WHO saying that the bird flu virus has mutated. Between the 1st and 18th of January, 9 new cases of bird flu were confirmed, and the path of infection has not yet been established in four of those cases.

Human transmission?

Experts have not identified the point of contact of some of the infected patients with the disease, which raises a question: "Does this mean that there are some disease mechanisms, including methods of infection, which are not yet clear? Are there avenues of infection other than contact with birds? Can healthy individuals carry the infection? Zeng Guang, head of the epidemiology department at the China Center for Disease Control, says that these questions have yet to be researched with precision. Research has, however, already confirmed that the HN51 virus can be transmitted through the air. This means that the threat of infection spreading between humans has increased dramatically.


Poultry have been culled

One well-known scientist in Hong Kong dealing with the bird flu threat has voiced his fears: the recent outbreak in Turkey has been particularly severe. 19 are reported to have died, with one family suffering three or four casualties. It is not possible to say bird flu cannot be transmitted between humans. With cases like this (several people in one family contracting the disease) it is very difficult to say whether infection spread between people or only from birds to people.

Holiday danger

Figures from the Office of National Statistics show that in 2003 there were over 100 million rural residents working away from home. These migrant workers make up the bulk of the flow of people at Spring Festival. Moreover, rural villages are where the majority of bird flu cases occur. Of the 8 full case histories made public by the Ministry of Health, 7 were in rural areas. At a press conference for the State Council, China's chief vet Jia Youling said: "Consumption of domestic poultry will rise over the New Year holiday period, and the numbers of people making long distance journeys will also rise. Because of this, we predict a heightened danger of bird flu." On January 16, the Railways Authority announced a five point plan to combat airborne infection on trains during the winter rush. One of the infections they cited was bird flu.


Millions of travellers on the move

Despite these measures, doctors are still concerned that the tradition of raising poultry and pigs in close contact with humans in rural areas gives the bird flu virus plenty of opportunities to mutate. Pigs are able to carry both human and bird flu viruses, so once a pig is infected with bird flu, the virus is able to mix with human flu strains in the pig's body. If this occurs, it is possible for the virus to mutate to a new, deadly form that can be transmitted between humans. Any human infected with such a virus would become a source of a "human flu" infection, which after further mutations could easily be transmitted from person to person.

"Up to now, no cases of human to human transmission of the bird flu virus have been recorded, so there is no immediate danger. There is, however, a greater danger that sufferers from the virus will be scattered over a wider area. Though there is no cause for public alarm, it is necessary that precautions be taken," said the Hong Kong researcher.


Close contact with poultry is common

Spring Festival is a joyful moment that unites the country, and each traveler is eager to return to their hometown to celebrate. However, it is as yet impossible to say whether an untimely outbreak of bird flu might have the power to put a serious damper on the festive period.

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Vocabulary
lubricant 润滑剂
deuterium 氘
transmission 传播
mutate 变异
epidemiology 流行病学
damper 扫兴的事